Abstract

A genetic epidemiological model was developed for the case where infectivity arises from an environmental reservoir of infection, itself due to shedding of infection by infected animals. This applies to many common endemic bacterial infections in livestock. The model has parameters describing host resistance to infection, shedding rate and recovery rate, with parameters also for bacterial mortality and removal. A term equivalent to R0 was derived, and it is a linear function of susceptibility, shedding rate and recovery period, and it is a curvilinear function of animal numbers (or stocking density). Epidemics with this model are longer lasting than equivalent epidemics spread by direct contact, hence pose a longer-term threat. This model should now be applied to endemic bacterial diseases of importance, such as E. coli mastitis or footrot in sheep.

Stephen C Bishop, John A Woolliams, I. P Wallis

Proceedings of the World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production, Volume , , 15.23, 2006
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