Predicting gain for optimum contribution selection is associated with two issues, the first concerned with inter-generational dependence of the contributions, and the second concerned with dynamic desirability. By ignoring the latter, which is valid when the accuracy of candidates approaches 1, a formula for ΔG(T, ΔF, α) can be obtained, where ΔG(T, ΔF, α) is the maximum gain possible with T candidates per generation, rate of inbreeding ΔF, and degree of coancestry α. Simulation showed predictions were reasonable, although further validation is required. The developed theory made testable predictions that the importance of mating designs depended only on their impact on α as accuracy approaches 1, and simulations also validated this prediction. Mating designs that affect α retain impact because they affect both the variance of the Mendelian sampling term and the relationship between squared contributions and ΔF.
Proceedings of the World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production, Volume Genetic Improvement Programs: Breeding objectives, economics of selection schemes, and advances in selection theory, , 018, 2014
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